Third Shot Drives: What Happens Next

One of the things we try to do with Pickleball Statistics is add specificity to general assumptions. For example, the “third shot drive/fifth shot drop combo.” How often does that actually happen in PPA play? 

Breakdown of the Study

I watched the most recent tournament, the Orange County Cup, played in San Clemente, California on June 30. For this study, nine high-profile matches: the two semifinals and final in each of Men’s, Women’s and Mixed Doubles. Those nine matches had 371 third-shot drives. Here’s the breakdown: 

371 third shot drives. Subtract 27 errors and winners on those drives, and 344 rallies continued.

344 third shot drives in play. The receiving team made 35 errors and winners on their fourth shots, so 309 rallies went to a fifth shot.

309 fifth shot opportunities. The most common option was a drop shot, either as a volley or on a bounce. 203 were hit by either player on the serving team, which is 66 percent of the 309 opportunities.

The second-most common option for a fifth shot was a firm volley, either by the player who hit the third shot drive or his/her teammate, such as a “shake and bake” or the player who drove the ball following his own shot. There were 98 firm volleys, or 31 percent of the 309 fifth shot opportunities.

The rarest choices were either a drive off the bounce or a lob. There were eight of those (seven drives and one lob), accounting for just three percent of the fifth shot opportunities.

Results and Insights

The “third shot drive, fifth shot drop” combo was used in 68 percent of the fifth shot opportunities in the six semifinal matches, 61 percent of the fifth shot opportunities in the three finals matches, and 66 percent overall.

A secondary discovery was only 17 percent of the pros’ rallies with third shot drives ended on the third or fourth shot. (As we go down through lower levels of amateur play, that number should increase correspondingly.)  

What are the “immediate results” of a third shot drive, before we get to a fifth shot opportunity? 62 of the rallies with 371 drives ended on the third or fourth shot, with the edge going to the receiving team. Of these 62 instances, 36 ended on a third shot drive error or a fourth shot winner (58%), while 26 of those rallies ended on a third shot drive winner or a fourth shot error (42%). I am not sure if 62 instances are a large enough sample size to reach a definitive conclusion, but there it is.

A third shot drive sets off a chain reaction that more often than not leads to a fifth shot drop. In the ever-evolving game of pickleball, we now have a clearer picture of how this tactic is employed at the pro level in 2024.